🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."