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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.